Abstract

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of India's electric vehicle (EV) market from 2022 to 2024, with projections extending to 2030. Utilizing data from the Vahan Dashboard and leveraging SQL and Power BI for analysis, the research examines sales trends, regional variations, and manufacturer performance in two- and four-wheeler EV segments. Key findings reveal significant growth in states like Maharashtra, Delhi, and Karnataka, driven by favourable policies and infrastructure development. The study identifies market leaders such as Hero Electric and Tata Motors, while also highlighting quarterly sales patterns and regional adoption rates. The research provides insights into high-growth regions and projects future sales volumes by employing clustering analysis and CAGR calculations. This analysis offers valuable perspectives for manufacturers, policymakers, and investors navigating India's rapidly evolving EV landscape, underlining the need for continued infrastructure development and policy support to meet the country's 2030 EV adoption targets.

Introduction

The Electric Vehicle (EV) industry in India has been witnessing remarkable growth in recent years, driven by government initiatives, increasing consumer awareness, and the global push towards reducing carbon emissions. India's automotive market, historically dominated by internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, is transitioning towards cleaner alternatives, with electric two-wheelers and four-wheelers leading the charge.
The Indian government has set an ambitious target of achieving 30% electric mobility by 2030. This goal is supported by schemes like FAME (Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles), which aims to accelerate the shift towards electric vehicles.

Key objectives of this analysis include:

1. Evaluating EV sales growth by state and manufacturer.
2. Identifying the top and bottom-performing manufacturers in terms of EV sales, with a focus on fiscal years 2023 and 2024.
3. Analyzing quarterly sales trends for prominent EV manufacturers.
4. Comparing the penetration rates of EVs across key regions such as Delhi and Karnataka.
5. Forecasting future sales of EVs for the top states by 2030, based on historical sales trends and compounded annual growth rates (CAGR).
6. Classifying Indian states into high-growth, medium-growth, and low-growth clusters based on their EV sales growth rates.

Through this comprehensive analysis, we aim to provide valuable insights for manufacturers, policymakers, and investors to make well-informed decisions in the rapidly evolving Indian EV market.

Methodology

Data Source:
For this project, we utilized data on electric vehicle sales from the Vahan Dashboard, a government-run platform that tracks vehicle registrations across India. This portal provides comprehensive and up-to-date information on vehicle registrations by state, vehicle category, and manufacturer.

Data Collection Process:

1. Data Download: Monthly data was obtained from the Vahan Dashboard, which includes electric vehicle registrations across all states and vehicle categories. The dataset includes fields such as:

   • Date (in the format DD-MMM-YY)
   • State (geographical region)
   • Vehicle Category (2-wheeler, 4-wheeler)
   • Sales by Manufacturer (Maker)
   • Total Vehicles Sold (including ICE and EV vehicles)

2. Table Setup: The data was stored in an SQL database (EVdb) using the following tables:

   • electric_vehicle_sales_by_state: Contains state-wise sales data.
   • electric_vehicle_sales_by_makers: Tracks sales by various EV manufacturers.
   • dim_date: Provides information on fiscal years and quarters to facilitate time-series analysis.

3. Data Cleansing: Data preparation included transforming date formats, filling the missing values, and aligning sales data with the fiscal year cycle (April to March).

Analysis Approach:

1. SQL Queries: Several SQL queries were designed to extract key metrics, such as growth rates of EV sales, sales penetration rates, and comparative performance across states and manufacturers. These queries formed the basis for deeper analysis in Power BI.

2. Power BI Visualizations: Using Power BI, we visualized the data to reveal trends, patterns, and insights. Key visualizations included:

   • Growth trends for two-wheelers and four-wheelers by state and manufacturer.
   • Penetration rates of EVs across India.
   • Clustering analysis for states based on growth rates.
   • Forecasting future sales based on historical data and compounded annual growth rates (CAGR).

Outcomes:

1. Sales Growth and Market Leaders:
   We identified the top 5 EV manufacturers for both 2-wheelers and 4-wheelers by analyzing growth trends from 2022 to 2024. Manufacturers like Hero Electric and Tata Motors emerged as market leaders in their respective categories. States like Maharashtra, Delhi, and Karnataka showcased substantial growth in EV sales, driven by favourable policies and infrastructure developments.

2. Quarterly Trends for 4-Wheelers:
   The quarterly analysis showed peak sales during specific quarters, with the second and fourth quarters witnessing spikes in 4-wheeler EV sales. The growth was attributed to new model releases, government incentives, and consumer shifts towards cleaner energy vehicles.

3. Penetration Rates and Regional Comparison:
   Delhi and Karnataka were compared for 2024, highlighting Delhi's higher EV penetration rate. Delhi’s policies favouring EV adoption and investment in charging infrastructure contributed to its leadership, while Karnataka, with steady growth, remains a strong contender due to its large manufacturing base.

4. Projected Sales by 2030

The primary objective of this project was to conduct a comprehensive analysis of electric vehicle (EV) sales trends in India, with a specific focus on both 2-wheelers and 4-wheelers between 2022 and 2024. Leveraging advanced data visualization techniques and analytical tools within Power BI, the project sought to extract actionable insights into sales growth, regional performance, and market penetration of EVs.

Project Outcomes:

1. Sales Growth and Market Leaders:
   The analysis identified the top 5 EV manufacturers for both 2-wheelers and 4-wheelers by scrutinizing growth trends from 2022 to 2024. Manufacturers such as Hero Electric and Tata Motors emerged as market leaders in their respective categories. States like Maharashtra, Delhi, and Karnataka exhibited significant growth in EV sales, driven by favourable policies and infrastructure developments.

2. Quarterly Trends for 4-Wheelers:
   The quarterly analysis revealed peak sales during specific quarters, with spikes in 4-wheeler EV sales in the second and fourth quarters. This growth was attributed to new model releases, government incentives, and consumer inclinations towards cleaner energy vehicles.

3. Penetration Rates and Regional Comparison:
   A comparative analysis of Delhi and Karnataka in 2024 highlighted Delhi's higher EV penetration rate. Delhi’s supportive policies for EV adoption and investment in charging infrastructure contributed to its leadership, while Karnataka, with consistent growth, remains a strong contender due to its substantial manufacturing base.

4. Projected Sales by 2030:
   Utilizing CAGR calculations, the projected EV sales for the top 10 states by penetration rate indicated that states like Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, and Gujarat are anticipated to lead in sales volume by 2030. These projections offer valuable insights for manufacturers and policymakers, outlining the probable areas of future growth.

Implications for the EV Industry
These projections offer valuable insights for manufacturers and policymakers, outlining the probable areas of future growth. The findings underscore the escalating demand for EVs in India and emphasize the necessity for continuous infrastructure, policy, and innovation support to achieve the 2030 EV adoption targets.

Key implications include:

1. Infrastructure Development: The projected growth highlights the urgent need for extensive charging infrastructure, particularly in high-growth states.

2. Policy Support: Continued and enhanced policy support will be crucial to maintain the growth trajectory, especially in states showing high potential.

3. Manufacturing Capacity: EV manufacturers may need to significantly scale up their production capacities to meet the projected demand.

4. Investment Opportunities: The projections indicate lucrative investment opportunities in the EV ecosystem, including manufacturing, charging infrastructure, and related technologies.

5. Regional Focus: Manufacturers and policymakers may need to adopt region-specific strategies to address the varying growth rates and penetration levels across different states.

6. Innovation: The competitive landscape will likely drive innovation in EV technology, potentially leading to more affordable and efficient electric vehicles.

These future projections and their implications provide a roadmap for stakeholders in the Indian EV industry, helping them prepare for the anticipated growth and challenges in the coming years.

Conclusion:
The Power BI-driven analysis provided a comprehensive perspective on India's EV market trends, highlighting the rapid adoption in specific states and the growing dominance of manufacturers. By projecting future sales and categorizing states based on growth, the project delivers valuable insights for manufacturers, policymakers, and investors to make well-informed decisions in the EV market.
Key findings include:

1. Strong growth in EV adoption, particularly in states like Delhi, Maharashtra, and Karnataka.
2. Emergence of market leaders such as Hero Electric and Tata Motors in their respective segments.
3. Substantial regional disparities in EV penetration rates, highlighting the need for targeted policies.
4. Projections indicating exponential growth by 2030, with some states potentially reaching over 60% EV penetration. Despite challenges in infrastructure and upfront costs, the Indian EV market shows promise for manufacturers, policymakers, and investors. Continued support through infrastructure development, policy initiatives, and innovation will be crucial to achieve India's 2030 EV adoption targets and capitalize on the opportunities presented by this evolving market.

These findings underscore the escalating demand for EVs in India and emphasize the necessity for continuous infrastructure, policy, and innovation support to achieve the 2030 EV adoption targets.: Using CAGR calculations, projected EV sales for the top 10 states by penetration rate indicated that states like Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, and Gujarat are expected to lead in sales volume by 2030. These projections provide a valuable outlook for manufacturers and policymakers on where future growth is likely to occur.